Welcome to the Screen Rant Box Office Prediction. Every week we put together an informal list of box office picks for the upcoming weekend to offer readers a rough estimate of how new releases (and returning holdovers) will perform in theaters.
For a recap of last week’s box office totals, read our box office wrap-up from Logan’s opening weekend, and scroll to the bottom of this post to see how our picks matched up.
Full disclosure: Box office predictions are not an exact science. We acknowledge our picks may not always be correct. For the sake of offering a jumping off point for discussion, here are our picks for the weekend of March 10 - 12, 2017.
This weekend, Kong: Skull Island opens in 3,846 theaters.
#1 - Kong: Skull Island
In what should be a tight race for the top spot, we are giving the edge to Kong: Skull Island (read our review), the second installment in the burgeoning MonsterVerse from Legendary Pictures. In addition to featuring the famous King Kong on the big screen for the first time since 2005, the film’s human cast is a who’s who of the film community’s favorite actors. Among the stars are Tom Hiddleston, Samuel L. Jackson, Brie Larson, and John C. Reilly, all of whom have appeared in their fair share of hits over the years (in particular, some Marvel movies). The talented ensemble should be enough to pique the interest of those sitting on the fence, as they’re all usually fun to watch. Also benefitting Skull Island is the fact it has generated mostly positive reviews, with critics calling it a fun time at the theater.
All of these factors should be enough to push Kong over the edge and into #1. Projections have it pegged for a $43.5 million opening weekend, which would be a decent start for the franchise entry. Peter Jackson’s remake of the 1933 classic was commercially successful, earning $50.1 million in its three days (despite a whopping 3-hour run time). Skull Island, which is a shorter, more traditional action tentpole, looks to be the one to beat this weekend with everything working in its favor. After the emotionally-draining experience of Logan (as acclaimed as it is), something a little more escapist could do well at the box office.
#2 - Logan
Look for last week’s champ, Logan (read our review), to slide to second in its second weekend - but only barely so. In its debut, the comic book movie broke box office records, earning an impressive $88 million in its first three days. Ever since it premiere, Logan has been hailed as one of the finest superhero movies of all-time and a fitting, poignant end to Hugh Jackman’s career in the series. It’s riding a strong wave of positive buzz that should give it very strong legs as it continues its run. While it has to deal with Skull Island, it’s not exactly an apples-to-apples comparison. Logan’s R-rating opens it to a more adult-orientated demographic that Kong lacks due to its PG-13. There will be money to go around for both this week.
#3 - Get Out
In third should be Get Out (read our review). The horror film has done incredibly well in the early stages of its run, earning $87.3 million domestically to date. As successful as it’s been, it’s going to start to slide down the charts a bit with the presence of two high-profile studio blockbusters. However, thriller fans in the mood for a scare or two will still seek out Get Out, meaning it should have another fruitful weekend, all things considered.
#4 - The Shack
Our pick for fourth is The Shack, which came in third last week with $16.1 million. Despite its minimal marketing campaign and limited awareness, the film was able to find an audience, continuing the trend of faith-based films succeeding commercially. With that niche going underserved at the movies, The Shack should keep up its halfway decent numbers for at least another week or two.
#5 - The LEGO Batman Movie
Rounding out the top five should be The LEGO Batman Movie (read our review), which has proven to be a success for Warner Bros., despite fewer returns than the original LEGO film. It remains the only high-profile animated movie playing in theaters, making it the ideal pick for the juice box crowd and children still too young for Kong. Though business is starting to decline, it’ll likely stick around.
Last Week’s Recap
In a special edition of the box office prediction, we said Logan would make between $80-85 million in its opening weekend. It ended up with $88.4 million.
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Next Week: Beauty and the Beast, The Belko Experiment, and more!
Sources: Box Office Mojo (Release Schedule), Box Office (Opening Weekend Projections)
